Value Betting Strategy

Two terms have been causing a stir in the area of sports betting strategies in recent years: so-called Value Bets and Surebets. In this article, we’ll explain exactly what the former are, how to calculate them, find them, and how to best use this betting strategy!

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What Is Meant by the Term “Value Bet”?

Before we go into more detail, let’s first clarify what the term actually means. It’s clear that “bet” stands for wager, and the word “value” means nothing other than “worth”.

The verb “to value” means something like to value, to assess something—to estimate its worth. A value bet, then, is a valuable bet that is very profitable and therefore worthwhile. It is, if you will, a “bet with special value.”

What Are Value Bets?

But now to the actual question: How does this special (added) value come about? What turns a normal bet into a value bet? Value in the context of sports betting is always referred to when the bookmaker incorrectly assesses the initial probabilities of an event and the odds are therefore set too high!

The comparison value – and this is the special trick of the whole thing – is your personally assessed probability! The goal is therefore to identify the bookmakers’ miscalculations by comparing the calculated probabilities of occurrence and using them to your own advantage!

How this works will be explained in detail in the next sections. First, a short digression: As we know, betting odds are nothing more than probabilities: the lower the odds, the higher the probability of occurrence, and conversely, the higher the odds, the lower the probability of occurrence. For example, if the bookmaker assumes that Team A has a 50% probability of winning, the odds are calculated very simply:

• Odds = 100 / Probability in % = 100 / 50 = 2.00

• Odds = 1 / Probability in decimal form = 1 / 0.5 = 2.00

Naturally, it’s important to the bookmaker to make a profit. With a targeted profit margin in the range of 5% to 10%, they will generally offer odds of 1.90 to 1.95.

To determine the actual probability evaluated by the bookmaker, you should multiply the quoted odds by the average of the winning batch – i.e., approximately 1.07. To better illustrate the calculation of a value bet and the idea behind it, let’s briefly leave the realm of sports betting and use another example: Suppose a dealer is betting on a dice game.

You are asked to guess which number from 1 to 6 will be rolled. The probability of each number occurring is logically 1:6. This would correspond to odds of 6.00. Now, contrary to all logic and to your astonishment, the dealer offers you odds of 8.00 for the number “5.” A very clear case: In this case, it’s a value bet, because the probability is too low and the odds are far too high. In the next step, you have to weigh up whether to risk the bet because the odds are too high or not – because the actual probability of winning of 16.67% doesn’t actually change. It’s no different with football bets or sports betting in general. The specific factors that determine the odds are far more complex than in our example.

The Value Bet Formula: How Can Value Bets Be Calculated?

Having already clarified how odds and probabilities are calculated in the previous section, we now want to delve deeper into the subject of the value bet strategy.

We want to explore how a so-called value can be determined or calculated and why it is absolutely necessary to work with one’s own probabilities as a reference value.

This is done quite simply: Experts rely on the generally accepted value formula, or value bet formula ! It’s quickly explained:

• Value = (odds x probability in %) / 100

or

• Value = Odds x Probability in decimal form

The basic principle is: If we get a value above 1, it’s a value bet. If the value is below 1, however, we’re dealing with a bad bet, which you can still play with – but for which no “added value” could be determined. To better understand this, let’s take a concrete example: For the Chelsea vs. Everton match, a certain bookmaker offers odds of 1.60 for a home win – thus, the bookmaker estimates the probability at approximately 62.5%, regardless of the calculated profit margin. However, after sufficient analysis, we believe the probability is higher: We expect a 70% chance of a Blues home win. Here’s the corresponding calculation:

• Value = (1.60 x 70) / 100

or

• Value = 1.60 x 0.70

= 1.12

The value is far above the magic 1. So, in this case, we’re dealing with a value bet. What would the opposite scenario look like? Let’s take the odds of 1.35 from another bookmaker:

• Value = 1.45 x 0.70 = 0.945

According to this calculation, the bet with this bookmaker would have no value, as the calculated value is below the threshold of 1. Therefore, it shouldn’t be placed. However, the entire calculation is based on exactly one framework: our own calculated probabilities! For this reason, in the next section, we’ll explain how you can calculate these and, as a result, how to recognize value bets as such!

How Do You Recognize & Find Value Bets?

We explained how value bets are calculated in the last chapter. But now we come to the question of all questions: How do you recognize them? Or rather: How do I calculate my personal probabilities, which I then compare with those of the bookmaker? The magic word here is “information advantage”. The best thing to do is – let’s assume football – if you become an absolute betting expert in a certain league of your choice!

It doesn’t even have to be a top league. In this league you then plow through the countless statistics – the more and more comprehensive the better. However, there are a few points that we want to mention to you that are essential. Let’s now take a specific match: Look at at least the last 15-25 games of both teams, that’s around 50 matches in total.

This may sound like a lot at first, but since your focus is on one league, most of the matches remain the same for new bets, and you don’t have to analyze 50 new games each time, the effort will quickly pay off. This way, you’ll quickly build your own database and have in -depth knowledge. Keep in mind: bookmakers also take a strategic approach—although, of course, they feed intelligent programs with data! What fundamentals can you draw from the collected games?

A value bet example: With the odds of 2.75 offered by William Hill on tip 2, we see clear value, as we expect the away team to have a much higher probability of winning!

• The breakdown is based on the 1X2 pattern – how often did the team in question win, lose or draw?

• Home and away statistics: How does a team perform at home or away?

• How did the result come about?

• What format are the individual matches in? League, cup, or international competition?

You may want to exclude cup competitions from your league bets for your personal probability calculation and evaluate them separately – always focus on the appropriate format!

In addition to these points, which you should definitely consider when calculating, we’d now like to introduce you to one of many possible ways to calculate your personal probabilities in two steps! The following example: Team A competes against Team B. Now we determine: How often has A won in a certain number of recent games (e.g., 20) – or how often has B lost under the same conditions (number of games)? The same procedure is also used in reverse. Step 1:

• Odds of victory A: Number of wins A + Number of losses B

= 9 + 7 = 16

• Odds for victory B: Number of wins B + Number of losses A

= 6 + 4 = 10

• Odds draw: Number of draws A + Number of draws B

= 7 + 7 = 14

Step 2: Your personal odds are calculated by dividing the above values by the total number of games (16 + 10 + 14 = 40). This gives you your probabilities or odds, which you can use to enter the race and either use in the value bet formula or compare individually with the bookmaker’s odds.

• Odds win A = 16/40 = 40% = 2.50

• Odds win B = 10/40 = 25% = 4.00

• Odds of a draw = 14/40 = 35% = 2.85

What Are the Risks of Value Bets?

At this point we would like to draw your attention to the three main risks surrounding the topic of value betting! The main danger with the value betting strategy is, of course, that you incorrectly assess your “personal probabilities” and odds.

After all, all of your considerations are based on this specific point. It is very important to put your gut feeling aside – your only basis for assessment with this betting strategy is your data and figures.

You should also be careful with value values calculated by third parties and presented on relevant websites! The second point we would like to mention is the odds changes or adjustments at the various non GamStop casino! If you have discovered value in a sports bet, you must strike immediately! Most bookmakers discover their mistakes – if it is a significant deviation – very quickly and react accordingly. So before the bookies “correctly” adjust the odds downwards, you should already have placed the bet. This strategy requires not only an information advantage, but also speed of action! The third danger concerns particularly high betting odds. Value is especially easy to spot when it comes to odds on underdogs!

For example, if a bookmaker offers extremely lucrative odds of 12.50, even though your calculations indicate odds of 9.10 (11% probability) would be more appropriate, this results in a value of 1.375, well above the aforementioned benchmark of 1 – but the probability of winning this bet is still very low, and the likelihood of success is unlikely. Placing a value bet with only a meager chance of winning makes little sense. And of course, value bets should always be placed as single bets!

Conclusion: Is the Value Bet Strategy Worth It?

For many betting experts, value bets are almost the only way to stay in the black over the long term, i.e. to make a profit. You should definitely keep in mind that this is a long-term strategy with which you can achieve a manageable but consistent profit. You can’t make quick money with value bets – you would have to spot extreme outliers or errors on the part of the bookmakers – so you should have enough patience.

The higher your calculated value, the higher your bet should and can be – after all, you should also use and exploit any added value you discover accordingly. If you can trust the data and numbers you have collected and calculated (these should of course be meaningful) and don’t let gut feeling influence your decisions, then the value bet strategy is the right choice for you!

Please note: Accompanying circumstances such as whether the match is away or home, or whether it is a league or cup game, have nothing to do with gut feeling, but are part of your statistical data. Always consider the risks of this betting strategy: Incorrect calculations on your part and betting on very high odds – even if they have value – are the biggest dangers of the value bet strategy.